백테스팅, 앙상블, 워밍업 재시작 스크립트 추가

- analysis/backtest.py: 백테스팅 프레임워크 신규 추가
- analysis/ensemble.py: 적응형 앙상블 가중치 신규 추가
- warmup_and_restart.py: 봇 워밍업 및 재시작 스크립트 신규 추가

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
2026-02-24 23:09:32 +09:00
parent 4e77a1acf1
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"""
백테스팅 프레임워크 (Phase 3-1)
- 과거 OHLCV 데이터로 전략 시뮬레이션
- 성과지표: Sharpe ratio, MDD, 승률, 평균손익비
- Phase 2 모델 변경 전후 비교 검증용
"""
import json
import numpy as np
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Callable
@dataclass
class Trade:
ticker: str
entry_date: int # 데이터 인덱스
entry_price: float
exit_date: int
exit_price: float
qty: int
direction: str = "LONG" # LONG / SHORT
@property
def pnl(self):
if self.direction == "LONG":
return (self.exit_price - self.entry_price) * self.qty
return (self.entry_price - self.exit_price) * self.qty
@property
def pnl_pct(self):
return (self.exit_price - self.entry_price) / self.entry_price * 100
@dataclass
class BacktestResult:
total_return_pct: float
sharpe_ratio: float
max_drawdown_pct: float
win_rate: float
avg_win_pct: float
avg_loss_pct: float
profit_factor: float
total_trades: int
winning_trades: int
losing_trades: int
trades: List[Trade] = field(default_factory=list)
def summary(self) -> str:
lines = [
"=" * 50,
"📊 백테스팅 결과",
"=" * 50,
f"총 수익률: {self.total_return_pct:+.2f}%",
f"Sharpe Ratio: {self.sharpe_ratio:.3f}",
f"Max Drawdown: {self.max_drawdown_pct:.2f}%",
f"승률: {self.win_rate:.1f}% ({self.winning_trades}/{self.total_trades})",
f"평균 수익: {self.avg_win_pct:+.2f}%",
f"평균 손실: {self.avg_loss_pct:.2f}%",
f"손익비(PF): {self.profit_factor:.2f}",
"=" * 50,
]
return "\n".join(lines)
class Backtester:
"""
OHLCV 기반 전략 백테스터
사용 예시:
bt = Backtester(initial_capital=10_000_000)
result = bt.run(
ohlcv_data={"close": [...], "high": [...], "low": [...], "volume": [...]},
strategy_fn=my_strategy,
ticker="005930"
)
print(result.summary())
"""
def __init__(self, initial_capital: float = 10_000_000,
commission_rate: float = 0.00015, # 0.015% (증권사 기본)
slippage_rate: float = 0.001): # 0.1% 슬리피지
self.initial_capital = initial_capital
self.commission_rate = commission_rate
self.slippage_rate = slippage_rate
def run(self, ohlcv_data: Dict, strategy_fn: Callable,
ticker: str = "UNKNOWN", warmup: int = 60) -> BacktestResult:
"""
단일 종목 백테스팅
Args:
ohlcv_data: {'close':[], 'high':[], 'low':[], 'open':[], 'volume':[]}
strategy_fn: (ohlcv_slice: dict) -> str ("BUY" | "SELL" | "HOLD")
ticker: 종목 코드
warmup: 초기 웜업 기간 (기술지표 안정화)
Returns:
BacktestResult
"""
closes = np.array(ohlcv_data.get('close', []), dtype=float)
highs = np.array(ohlcv_data.get('high', closes), dtype=float)
lows = np.array(ohlcv_data.get('low', closes), dtype=float)
volumes = np.array(ohlcv_data.get('volume', np.zeros_like(closes)), dtype=float)
n = len(closes)
if n < warmup + 10:
return self._empty_result()
capital = self.initial_capital
position = 0 # 보유 수량
entry_price = 0.0
entry_idx = 0
equity_curve = [capital]
trades: List[Trade] = []
for i in range(warmup, n):
# 전략 함수에 현재까지의 슬라이스 전달
slice_data = {
'close': closes[:i+1].tolist(),
'high': highs[:i+1].tolist(),
'low': lows[:i+1].tolist(),
'volume': volumes[:i+1].tolist(),
}
signal = "HOLD"
try:
signal = strategy_fn(slice_data)
except Exception:
pass
price = closes[i]
buy_price = price * (1 + self.slippage_rate) # 슬리피지 포함 매수가
sell_price = price * (1 - self.slippage_rate) # 슬리피지 포함 매도가
if signal == "BUY" and position == 0:
# 전액 투자 (수수료 포함)
qty = int(capital / (buy_price * (1 + self.commission_rate)))
if qty > 0:
cost = qty * buy_price * (1 + self.commission_rate)
capital -= cost
position = qty
entry_price = buy_price
entry_idx = i
elif signal == "SELL" and position > 0:
proceeds = position * sell_price * (1 - self.commission_rate)
capital += proceeds
trades.append(Trade(
ticker=ticker,
entry_date=entry_idx,
entry_price=entry_price,
exit_date=i,
exit_price=sell_price,
qty=position
))
position = 0
entry_price = 0.0
# 자산 추적
current_equity = capital + (position * closes[i] if position > 0 else 0)
equity_curve.append(current_equity)
# 미청산 포지션 강제 종료
if position > 0:
last_price = closes[-1] * (1 - self.slippage_rate)
proceeds = position * last_price * (1 - self.commission_rate)
capital += proceeds
trades.append(Trade(
ticker=ticker,
entry_date=entry_idx,
entry_price=entry_price,
exit_date=n - 1,
exit_price=last_price,
qty=position
))
equity_curve[-1] = capital
return self._compute_metrics(equity_curve, trades)
def run_multi(self, ohlcv_dict: Dict[str, Dict], strategy_fn: Callable,
warmup: int = 60) -> Dict[str, BacktestResult]:
"""여러 종목 백테스팅"""
results = {}
for ticker, ohlcv_data in ohlcv_dict.items():
results[ticker] = self.run(ohlcv_data, strategy_fn, ticker, warmup)
return results
def _compute_metrics(self, equity_curve: List[float], trades: List[Trade]) -> BacktestResult:
equity = np.array(equity_curve, dtype=float)
total_return_pct = (equity[-1] / equity[0] - 1) * 100
# Sharpe Ratio (일별 수익률 기준, 연율화)
daily_returns = np.diff(equity) / equity[:-1]
if daily_returns.std() > 0:
sharpe = (daily_returns.mean() / daily_returns.std()) * np.sqrt(252)
else:
sharpe = 0.0
# Max Drawdown
peak = np.maximum.accumulate(equity)
drawdowns = (equity - peak) / (peak + 1e-9) * 100
max_drawdown = abs(drawdowns.min())
# 승률 / 손익비
wins = [t for t in trades if t.pnl_pct > 0]
losses = [t for t in trades if t.pnl_pct <= 0]
win_rate = len(wins) / len(trades) * 100 if trades else 0
avg_win = np.mean([t.pnl_pct for t in wins]) if wins else 0
avg_loss = np.mean([t.pnl_pct for t in losses]) if losses else 0
total_win = sum(t.pnl for t in wins)
total_loss = abs(sum(t.pnl for t in losses))
profit_factor = total_win / (total_loss + 1e-9)
return BacktestResult(
total_return_pct=round(total_return_pct, 2),
sharpe_ratio=round(sharpe, 3),
max_drawdown_pct=round(max_drawdown, 2),
win_rate=round(win_rate, 1),
avg_win_pct=round(avg_win, 2),
avg_loss_pct=round(avg_loss, 2),
profit_factor=round(profit_factor, 3),
total_trades=len(trades),
winning_trades=len(wins),
losing_trades=len(losses),
trades=trades
)
def _empty_result(self) -> BacktestResult:
return BacktestResult(
total_return_pct=0.0, sharpe_ratio=0.0, max_drawdown_pct=0.0,
win_rate=0.0, avg_win_pct=0.0, avg_loss_pct=0.0,
profit_factor=0.0, total_trades=0, winning_trades=0, losing_trades=0
)
def compare_strategies(ohlcv_data: Dict, strategies: Dict[str, Callable],
initial_capital: float = 10_000_000) -> Dict[str, BacktestResult]:
"""
여러 전략 동시 비교
Args:
strategies: {"전략명": strategy_fn, ...}
Returns:
{"전략명": BacktestResult, ...}
"""
bt = Backtester(initial_capital=initial_capital)
results = {}
for name, fn in strategies.items():
results[name] = bt.run(ohlcv_data, fn)
print(f"\n[{name}]")
print(results[name].summary())
return results

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"""
앙상블 예측 모듈 (Phase 3-2)
- LSTM + 기술지표 + LLM 감성 → 적응형 가중치
- 과거 매매 결과 기반 가중치 자동 조정
- process.py의 하드코딩된 w_tech/w_news/w_ai 대체
"""
import os
import json
import numpy as np
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from typing import Dict, Optional
from modules.config import Config
@dataclass
class SignalWeights:
"""앙상블 가중치"""
tech: float = 0.35
sentiment: float = 0.30
lstm: float = 0.35
def normalize(self):
total = self.tech + self.sentiment + self.lstm
if total > 0:
self.tech /= total
self.sentiment /= total
self.lstm /= total
return self
def to_dict(self):
return {"tech": self.tech, "sentiment": self.sentiment, "lstm": self.lstm}
@classmethod
def from_dict(cls, d):
return cls(tech=d.get("tech", 0.35),
sentiment=d.get("sentiment", 0.30),
lstm=d.get("lstm", 0.35))
class AdaptiveEnsemble:
"""
적응형 앙상블 가중치 관리자
핵심 로직:
1. 종목별 최근 N 매매의 결과를 추적
2. 어떤 신호가 정확했는지 소급 평가
3. 정확도가 높은 신호의 가중치를 점진적으로 증가
4. 시장 상황(ADX, 거시경제) 반영한 컨텍스트별 가중치 분리
"""
def __init__(self, history_file=None, max_history=50):
self.max_history = max_history
self.history_file = history_file or os.path.join(
Config.DATA_DIR, "ensemble_history.json"
)
# {ticker: [{"tech": f, "sentiment": f, "lstm": f, "decision": str, "outcome": float}, ...]}
self._trade_history: Dict[str, list] = {}
# {context: SignalWeights} - context: "strong_trend" | "sideways" | "danger"
self._context_weights: Dict[str, SignalWeights] = {
"strong_trend": SignalWeights(tech=0.50, sentiment=0.20, lstm=0.30),
"sideways": SignalWeights(tech=0.30, sentiment=0.40, lstm=0.30),
"danger": SignalWeights(tech=0.20, sentiment=0.50, lstm=0.30),
"default": SignalWeights(tech=0.35, sentiment=0.30, lstm=0.35),
}
self._load()
def _load(self):
if os.path.exists(self.history_file):
try:
with open(self.history_file, "r", encoding="utf-8") as f:
data = json.load(f)
self._trade_history = data.get("history", {})
weights_raw = data.get("weights", {})
for ctx, w in weights_raw.items():
self._context_weights[ctx] = SignalWeights.from_dict(w)
except Exception as e:
print(f"[Ensemble] Load failed: {e}")
def _save(self):
try:
data = {
"history": {k: v[-self.max_history:] for k, v in self._trade_history.items()},
"weights": {ctx: w.to_dict() for ctx, w in self._context_weights.items()}
}
with open(self.history_file, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f:
json.dump(data, f, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2)
except Exception as e:
print(f"[Ensemble] Save failed: {e}")
def get_context(self, adx: float, macro_state: str) -> str:
"""현재 시장 컨텍스트 결정"""
if macro_state == "DANGER":
return "danger"
if adx >= 25:
return "strong_trend"
if adx < 20:
return "sideways"
return "default"
def get_weights(self, ticker: str, adx: float = 20.0,
macro_state: str = "SAFE",
ai_confidence: float = 0.5) -> SignalWeights:
"""
종목 + 시장 컨텍스트에 맞는 가중치 반환
1. 기본: 컨텍스트별 기준 가중치
2. AI 신뢰도 높으면 lstm 가중치 보정
3. 종목별 학습 결과 반영
"""
context = self.get_context(adx, macro_state)
base = self._context_weights.get(context, self._context_weights["default"])
# 적응형 조정: 해당 종목의 과거 성과 반영
ticker_history = self._trade_history.get(ticker, [])
adjusted = SignalWeights(tech=base.tech, sentiment=base.sentiment, lstm=base.lstm)
if len(ticker_history) >= 5:
# 최근 5회 신호별 정확도 평가
recent = ticker_history[-10:]
tech_acc = self._accuracy([h["tech_score"] for h in recent],
[h["outcome"] for h in recent])
news_acc = self._accuracy([h["sentiment_score"] for h in recent],
[h["outcome"] for h in recent])
lstm_acc = self._accuracy([h["lstm_score"] for h in recent],
[h["outcome"] for h in recent])
# 정확도 기반 가중치 미세 조정 (±0.1 범위)
alpha = 0.05
adjusted.tech = max(0.1, min(0.6, base.tech + alpha * (tech_acc - 0.5)))
adjusted.sentiment = max(0.1, min(0.6, base.sentiment + alpha * (news_acc - 0.5)))
adjusted.lstm = max(0.1, min(0.6, base.lstm + alpha * (lstm_acc - 0.5)))
# AI 신뢰도 보정
if ai_confidence >= 0.85:
adjusted.lstm = min(0.70, adjusted.lstm * 1.3)
elif ai_confidence < 0.5:
adjusted.lstm = max(0.10, adjusted.lstm * 0.7)
return adjusted.normalize()
def record_trade(self, ticker: str, tech_score: float, sentiment_score: float,
lstm_score: float, decision: str, outcome_pct: float):
"""
매매 결과 기록 (가중치 학습 데이터)
outcome_pct: 실현 수익률 (%). 양수=이익, 음수=손실
"""
if ticker not in self._trade_history:
self._trade_history[ticker] = []
record = {
"tech_score": tech_score,
"sentiment_score": sentiment_score,
"lstm_score": lstm_score,
"decision": decision,
"outcome": outcome_pct
}
self._trade_history[ticker].append(record)
# 히스토리 크기 제한
if len(self._trade_history[ticker]) > self.max_history:
self._trade_history[ticker] = self._trade_history[ticker][-self.max_history:]
# 가중치 점진적 업데이트
self._update_weights(ticker)
self._save()
def _update_weights(self, ticker: str):
"""종목별 성과를 반영해 컨텍스트 가중치 점진적 업데이트"""
history = self._trade_history.get(ticker, [])
if len(history) < 5:
return
recent = history[-10:]
outcomes = [h["outcome"] for h in recent]
mean_outcome = np.mean(outcomes)
if mean_outcome > 0:
# 전략이 효과적 → 현재 가중치 유지 (강화)
pass
elif mean_outcome < -2.0:
# 손실이 큰 경우 → 기본값으로 리셋
for ctx in self._context_weights:
self._context_weights[ctx] = SignalWeights(
tech=0.35, sentiment=0.30, lstm=0.35)
def compute_ensemble_score(self, tech_score: float, sentiment_score: float,
lstm_score: float, investor_score: float = 0.0,
weights: Optional[SignalWeights] = None) -> float:
"""
앙상블 통합 점수 계산
Args:
weights: 가중치 (None이면 기본값 사용)
"""
if weights is None:
weights = SignalWeights()
total = (weights.tech * tech_score
+ weights.sentiment * sentiment_score
+ weights.lstm * lstm_score)
# 수급 가산점 (최대 +0.15)
total += min(investor_score, 0.15)
return min(1.0, max(0.0, total))
@staticmethod
def _accuracy(scores: list, outcomes: list) -> float:
"""신호와 결과의 상관도 계산 (0.5 = 무관, 1.0 = 완전 일치)"""
if len(scores) < 3:
return 0.5
# 신호가 높을 때 수익, 낮을 때 손실이면 정확
correct = sum(
1 for s, o in zip(scores, outcomes)
if (s >= 0.5 and o > 0) or (s < 0.5 and o <= 0)
)
return correct / len(scores)
# 전역 싱글톤
_ensemble_instance: Optional[AdaptiveEnsemble] = None
def get_ensemble() -> AdaptiveEnsemble:
"""워커 프로세스 내 싱글톤 앙상블 관리자"""
global _ensemble_instance
if _ensemble_instance is None:
_ensemble_instance = AdaptiveEnsemble()
return _ensemble_instance

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"""
LSTM 사전학습 + 봇 자동 시작 통합 스크립트
- 구 봇 종료 후 이 스크립트가 백그라운드로 실행됨
- 12개 종목 LSTM 사전학습 → 완료 시 main_server.py 자동 시작
"""
import sys
import os
import time
import subprocess
import json
# 프로젝트 루트를 path에 추가
ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
sys.path.insert(0, ROOT)
os.chdir(ROOT)
LOG_FILE = os.path.join(ROOT, "warmup.log")
def log(msg):
ts = time.strftime("%H:%M:%S")
line = f"[{ts}] {msg}"
print(line, flush=True)
with open(LOG_FILE, "a", encoding="utf-8") as f:
f.write(line + "\n")
def run_warmup():
log("=" * 50)
log("LSTM 사전학습 시작 (Warmup)")
log("=" * 50)
try:
from modules.config import Config
from modules.services.kis import KISClient
from modules.analysis.deep_learning import PricePredictor
from modules.services.telegram import TelegramMessenger
messenger = TelegramMessenger()
messenger.send_message(
"🔄 <b>[Bot Restarting]</b>\n"
"LSTM 사전학습 중... 완료 후 자동 시작됩니다.\n"
f"대상: Watchlist 전체 종목"
)
kis = KISClient()
with open(Config.WATCHLIST_FILE, "r", encoding="utf-8") as f:
watchlist = json.load(f)
log(f"대상 종목: {len(watchlist)}")
predictor = PricePredictor()
total = len(watchlist)
success = 0
failed = 0
total_time = 0.0
for i, (ticker, name) in enumerate(watchlist.items(), 1):
log(f"[{i}/{total}] {name} ({ticker}) 학습 중...")
try:
# 100일 데이터로 LSTM 학습 (기간별시세 API)
prices = kis.get_daily_price(ticker, count=100)
if not prices or len(prices) < 70:
log(f" ⚠️ 데이터 부족 ({len(prices) if prices else 0}개)")
failed += 1
continue
t0 = time.time()
result = predictor.train_and_predict(prices, ticker=ticker)
elapsed = time.time() - t0
total_time += elapsed
if result:
log(f"{result['epochs']}에포크 | loss={result['loss']:.6f} | "
f"{result['change_rate']:+.2f}% | {elapsed:.1f}")
success += 1
else:
log(f" ⚠️ 결과 없음 ({elapsed:.1f}초)")
failed += 1
# KIS API 과호출 방지
time.sleep(0.5)
except Exception as e:
log(f" ❌ 오류: {e}")
failed += 1
log("=" * 50)
log(f"Warmup 완료: 성공 {success}개 / 실패 {failed}개 / 총 {total_time:.0f}")
log("=" * 50)
messenger.send_message(
f"✅ <b>[Warmup 완료]</b>\n"
f"성공: {success}종목 / 실패: {failed}종목\n"
f"소요: {total_time/60:.1f}\n"
f"→ 봇 시작 중..."
)
return True
except Exception as e:
log(f"❌ Warmup 실패: {e}")
import traceback
log(traceback.format_exc())
return False
def start_bot():
log("봇 시작: main_server.py")
try:
# 새 콘솔 창에서 봇 실행 (Windows)
if sys.platform == "win32":
subprocess.Popen(
[sys.executable, "main_server.py"],
creationflags=subprocess.CREATE_NEW_CONSOLE,
cwd=ROOT
)
else:
subprocess.Popen(
[sys.executable, "main_server.py"],
cwd=ROOT
)
log("✅ 봇 프로세스 시작 완료")
return True
except Exception as e:
log(f"❌ 봇 시작 실패: {e}")
return False
if __name__ == "__main__":
# warmup.log 초기화
with open(LOG_FILE, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f:
f.write(f"Warmup 시작: {time.strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')}\n")
warmup_ok = run_warmup()
if warmup_ok:
time.sleep(2)
start_bot()
else:
log("⚠️ Warmup 실패. 봇을 수동으로 시작해주세요: python main_server.py")