feat(lotto): evaluate_weekly 학습 신호를 forward lift로 승격

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

lotto/app/weight_evolver.py

@@ -294,6 +294,35 @@ def evaluate_weekly() -> Dict[str, Any]:
 
     winner = max(per_day, key=lambda d: d["avg_score"])
 
+    # 자가학습 강화: backtest forward 등수점수 lift로 winner 재선정
+    latest_no = latest["drw_no"]
+    runs = db.get_backtest_runs(draw_no=latest_no)
+    engine_runs = [r for r in runs if r["strategy"] == "engine_w"]
+    null_runs = [r for r in runs if r["strategy"] == "random_null"]
+    if engine_runs and null_runs:
+        random_score = prize_score_from_hist(null_runs[0])
+        per_w = []
+        for r in engine_runs:
+            per_w.append({
+                "trial_id": r["trial_id"],
+                "day_of_week": int(r["weight_label"][1:]) if r["weight_label"].startswith("w") else 0,
+                "weight": json.loads(r["weight_json"]) if r["weight_json"] else DEFAULT_UNIFORM[:],
+                "prize_score": prize_score_from_hist(r),
+            })
+        lift_winner = select_winner_by_lift(per_w, random_score=random_score)
+        if not lift_winner["gated"]:
+            winner = {
+                "trial_id": lift_winner["trial_id"],
+                "day_of_week": lift_winner["day_of_week"],
+                "weight": lift_winner["weight"],
+                "avg_score": winner["avg_score"],
+                "max_correct": winner["max_correct"],
+                "lift": lift_winner["lift"],
+            }
+        else:
+            # 노이즈 → base 유지 강제 (max_correct를 0으로 낮춰 unchanged 유도)
+            winner = {**winner, "max_correct": min(winner["max_correct"], 2), "lift": lift_winner["lift"]}
+
     current_base = db.get_current_base()
     new_base, reason = decide_base_update(
         winner_max_correct=winner["max_correct"],

lotto/tests/test_weight_evolver.py

@@ -135,3 +135,10 @@ def test_select_winner_by_lift_gating():
     winner2 = we.select_winner_by_lift(per_w, random_score=3.0, epsilon=2.0)
     assert winner2["gated"] is False
     assert winner2["trial_id"] == 2      # prize 9 → lift +6
+
+
+def test_prize_score_from_hist():
+    # 등수 가중치: 1등 매우 큼, 하위는 작게
+    s = we.prize_score_from_hist({"m3": 10, "m4": 2, "m5": 0, "m6": 0, "bonus_hits": 0})
+    s_big = we.prize_score_from_hist({"m3": 0, "m4": 0, "m5": 0, "m6": 1, "bonus_hits": 0})
+    assert s_big > s   # 1등 1장이 5등 다수보다 큼