refactor: rename stock-lab → stock (graduation)
- git mv stock-lab/ → stock/ - docker-compose.yml: 서비스 키 + container_name + build.context + frontend.depends_on + agent-office STOCK_LAB_URL → STOCK_URL - agent-office/app: config.py, service_proxy.py, agents/stock.py, tests/ STOCK_LAB_URL → STOCK_URL - nginx/default.conf: proxy_pass http://stock-lab → http://stock (3 lines) - CLAUDE.md / README.md / STATUS.md / scripts/ 문구 갱신 - stock/ 내부 자기 참조 갱신 lab 네이밍 정책 (feedback_lab_naming.md) graduation. API URL / Python import / DB 파일명 변경 없음.
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125
stock/app/screener/ai_news/validation.py
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125
stock/app/screener/ai_news/validation.py
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"""AI news sentiment validation — Spearman IC vs forward returns.
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핵심 metric: 일자별 score_raw 와 다음 N일 forward return 의 Spearman 상관.
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4주+ 누적 후 IC mean > 0.05 면 weight 활성화 가치 있음.
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import datetime as dt
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import sqlite3
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from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
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import pandas as pd
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def _spearman(a: pd.Series, b: pd.Series) -> Optional[float]:
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"""Spearman rank correlation. None if insufficient/degenerate data."""
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if len(a) < 5 or len(b) < 5:
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return None
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if a.std(ddof=0) == 0 or b.std(ddof=0) == 0:
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return None
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return float(a.rank().corr(b.rank()))
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def compute_ic(
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conn: sqlite3.Connection,
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*,
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days: int = 30,
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horizon: int = 1,
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min_news_count: int = 1,
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asof_today: Optional[dt.date] = None,
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) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""Compute daily Spearman IC of ai_news.score_raw vs forward return.
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Returns:
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{
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"horizon_days": int,
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"min_news_count": int,
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"window_days": int,
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"ic_count": int, # 유효 일수
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"ic_mean": float | None,
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"ic_std": float | None,
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"ic_per_day": [{"date": "YYYY-MM-DD", "ic": float, "n": int}, ...],
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"verdict": "skip" | "weak" | "strong",
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}
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verdict:
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- skip: ic_count < 10
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- weak: ic_mean in [-0.05, 0.05]
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- strong: |ic_mean| > 0.05
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"""
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asof_today = asof_today or dt.date.today()
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cutoff = (asof_today - dt.timedelta(days=days)).isoformat()
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sentiment = pd.read_sql_query(
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"SELECT ticker, date, score_raw, news_count "
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"FROM news_sentiment WHERE date >= ? AND news_count >= ? ORDER BY date",
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conn, params=(cutoff, min_news_count),
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)
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if sentiment.empty:
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return _empty_result(days, horizon, min_news_count)
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# forward return 조회: 각 (ticker, date) 에 대해 close[date+horizon] / close[date] - 1
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prices = pd.read_sql_query(
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"SELECT ticker, date, close FROM krx_daily_prices "
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"WHERE date >= ? ORDER BY ticker, date",
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conn, params=(cutoff,),
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)
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if prices.empty:
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return _empty_result(days, horizon, min_news_count)
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prices = prices.sort_values(["ticker", "date"])
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prices["fwd_close"] = prices.groupby("ticker", group_keys=False)["close"].shift(-horizon)
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prices["fwd_ret"] = prices["fwd_close"] / prices["close"] - 1.0
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merged = sentiment.merge(
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prices[["ticker", "date", "fwd_ret"]], on=["ticker", "date"], how="inner"
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)
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merged = merged.dropna(subset=["fwd_ret"])
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if merged.empty:
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return _empty_result(days, horizon, min_news_count)
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ic_rows: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
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for date, grp in merged.groupby("date"):
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ic = _spearman(grp["score_raw"], grp["fwd_ret"])
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if ic is not None:
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ic_rows.append({"date": date, "ic": ic, "n": int(len(grp))})
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if not ic_rows:
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return _empty_result(days, horizon, min_news_count)
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ic_series = pd.Series([r["ic"] for r in ic_rows], dtype=float)
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ic_mean = float(ic_series.mean())
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ic_std = float(ic_series.std(ddof=0)) if len(ic_series) > 1 else 0.0
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if len(ic_rows) < 10:
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verdict = "skip"
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elif abs(ic_mean) > 0.05:
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verdict = "strong"
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else:
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verdict = "weak"
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return {
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"horizon_days": horizon,
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"min_news_count": min_news_count,
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"window_days": days,
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"ic_count": len(ic_rows),
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"ic_mean": round(ic_mean, 4),
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"ic_std": round(ic_std, 4),
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"ic_per_day": ic_rows,
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"verdict": verdict,
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}
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def _empty_result(days: int, horizon: int, min_news_count: int) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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return {
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"horizon_days": horizon,
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"min_news_count": min_news_count,
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"window_days": days,
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"ic_count": 0,
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"ic_mean": None,
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"ic_std": None,
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"ic_per_day": [],
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"verdict": "skip",
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}
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