lotto-lab: strategy_evolver — EMA/Softmax 가중치 진화 + 스마트 추천

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

backend/app/strategy_evolver.py

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+"""
+전략 진화 엔진 — EMA + Softmax 기반 적응형 가중치 관리.
+"""
+import math
+import json
+import logging
+from typing import Dict, List, Any
+
+logger = logging.getLogger("lotto-backend")
+
+# ── Constants (importable without DB) ─────────────────────────────────────────
+ALPHA = 0.3           # EMA 감쇠율
+TEMPERATURE = 2.0     # Softmax 온도
+MIN_WEIGHT = 0.05     # 최소 가중치
+INITIAL_EMA = 0.15    # 콜드스타트 초기값
+MIN_DATA_DRAWS = 10   # 학습 최소 회차
+
+STRATEGIES = ["combined", "simulation", "heatmap", "manual", "custom"]
+RANK_BONUS = {5: 0.1, 4: 0.3, 3: 0.6, 2: 0.8, 1: 1.0}
+
+
+# ── Pure functions (no DB dependency) ─────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def calc_draw_score(results: List[Dict]) -> float:
+    """구매 결과 리스트 → 평균 성과 점수"""
+    if not results:
+        return 0.0
+    scores = []
+    for r in results:
+        s = r.get("correct", 0) / 6.0
+        s += RANK_BONUS.get(r.get("rank", 0), 0)
+        scores.append(s)
+    return sum(scores) / len(scores)
+
+
+def _softmax_weights(ema_scores: Dict[str, float]) -> Dict[str, float]:
+    """EMA 점수 → Softmax → 최소 가중치 보장 → 정규화"""
+    raw = {s: math.exp(ema / TEMPERATURE) for s, ema in ema_scores.items()}
+    total = sum(raw.values())
+    weights = {s: v / total for s, v in raw.items()}
+
+    clamped = {}
+    surplus = 0.0
+    unclamped = []
+    for s, w in weights.items():
+        if w < MIN_WEIGHT:
+            clamped[s] = MIN_WEIGHT
+            surplus += MIN_WEIGHT - w
+        else:
+            unclamped.append(s)
+            clamped[s] = w
+
+    if surplus > 0 and unclamped:
+        unclamped_total = sum(clamped[s] for s in unclamped)
+        for s in unclamped:
+            clamped[s] -= surplus * (clamped[s] / unclamped_total)
+
+    final_total = sum(clamped.values())
+    return {s: round(v / final_total, 4) for s, v in clamped.items()}
+
+
+# ── DB-dependent functions (use lazy imports) ─────────────────────────────────
+
+def _db():
+    """Lazy import to avoid circular/relative import issues in tests"""
+    from . import db as _db_mod
+    return _db_mod
+
+
+def _recommender():
+    from . import recommender as _rec_mod
+    return _rec_mod
+
+
+def _analyzer():
+    from . import analyzer as _ana_mod
+    return _ana_mod
+
+
+def update_ema_for_strategy(strategy: str, draw_score: float) -> float:
+    db = _db()
+    weights = db.get_strategy_weights()
+    current = next((w for w in weights if w["strategy"] == strategy), None)
+    old_ema = current["ema_score"] if current else INITIAL_EMA
+    new_ema = ALPHA * draw_score + (1 - ALPHA) * old_ema
+    return new_ema
+
+
+def recalculate_weights() -> Dict[str, float]:
+    db = _db()
+    weights_rows = db.get_strategy_weights()
+    ema_scores = {w["strategy"]: w["ema_score"] for w in weights_rows}
+
+    for s in STRATEGIES:
+        if s not in ema_scores:
+            ema_scores[s] = INITIAL_EMA
+
+    new_weights = _softmax_weights(ema_scores)
+
+    for s, w in new_weights.items():
+        row = next((r for r in weights_rows if r["strategy"] == s), None)
+        db.update_strategy_weight(
+            strategy=s,
+            weight=w,
+            ema_score=ema_scores[s],
+            total_sets=row["total_sets"] if row else 0,
+            total_hits_3plus=row["total_hits_3plus"] if row else 0,
+        )
+
+    logger.info(f"[strategy_evolver] 가중치 재계산: {new_weights}")
+    return new_weights
+
+
+def evolve_after_check(strategy: str, draw_no: int, results: List[Dict]) -> None:
+    db = _db()
+    draw_score = calc_draw_score(results)
+    new_ema = update_ema_for_strategy(strategy, draw_score)
+
+    weights_rows = db.get_strategy_weights()
+    current = next((w for w in weights_rows if w["strategy"] == strategy), None)
+    hits_3plus = sum(1 for r in results if r.get("correct", 0) >= 3)
+
+    db.update_strategy_weight(
+        strategy=strategy,
+        weight=current["weight"] if current else 0.2,
+        ema_score=new_ema,
+        total_sets=(current["total_sets"] if current else 0) + len(results),
+        total_hits_3plus=(current["total_hits_3plus"] if current else 0) + hits_3plus,
+    )
+
+    recalculate_weights()
+
+
+def get_weights_with_trend() -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    db = _db()
+    weights = db.get_strategy_weights()
+    perfs = db.get_strategy_performance()
+
+    strat_perfs = {}
+    for p in perfs:
+        s = p["strategy"]
+        if s not in strat_perfs:
+            strat_perfs[s] = []
+        strat_perfs[s].append(p)
+
+    result = []
+    for w in weights:
+        sp = strat_perfs.get(w["strategy"], [])
+        if len(sp) >= 5:
+            recent_avg = sum(p["avg_score"] for p in sp[-3:]) / 3
+            older_avg = sum(p["avg_score"] for p in sp[-5:-2]) / 3
+            delta = recent_avg - older_avg
+            trend = "up" if delta > 0.02 else ("down" if delta < -0.02 else "stable")
+        else:
+            trend = "stable"
+
+        result.append({
+            "strategy": w["strategy"],
+            "weight": w["weight"],
+            "ema_score": w["ema_score"],
+            "total_sets": w["total_sets"],
+            "hits_3plus": w["total_hits_3plus"],
+            "trend": trend,
+        })
+
+    all_draws = set()
+    for p in perfs:
+        all_draws.add(p["draw_no"])
+
+    return {
+        "weights": result,
+        "last_evolved": weights[0]["updated_at"] if weights else None,
+        "min_data_draws": MIN_DATA_DRAWS,
+        "current_data_draws": len(all_draws),
+        "status": "active" if len(all_draws) >= MIN_DATA_DRAWS else "learning",
+    }
+
+
+def generate_smart_recommendation(sets: int = 5) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    db = _db()
+    rec = _recommender()
+    ana = _analyzer()
+
+    weights_data = db.get_strategy_weights()
+    weight_map = {w["strategy"]: w["weight"] for w in weights_data}
+    draws = db.get_all_draw_numbers()
+    if not draws:
+        return {"error": "No draw data"}
+
+    latest = db.get_latest_draw()
+    cache = ana.build_analysis_cache(draws)
+    past_recs = db.list_recommendations_ex(limit=100, sort="id_desc")
+
+    candidates = []
+    seen_keys = set()
+
+    def _add_candidate(nums: list, strategy: str, raw_score: float = None):
+        key = tuple(sorted(nums))
+        if key in seen_keys:
+            return
+        seen_keys.add(key)
+        if raw_score is None:
+            sc = ana.score_combination(nums, cache)
+            raw_score = sc["score_total"]
+        meta = raw_score * weight_map.get(strategy, 0.1)
+        candidates.append({
+            "numbers": sorted(nums),
+            "raw_score": round(raw_score, 4),
+            "strategy": strategy,
+            "meta_score": round(meta, 4),
+        })
+
+    # combined: 10세트
+    for _ in range(10):
+        try:
+            r = ana.generate_combined_recommendation(draws)
+            if "final_numbers" in r:
+                _add_candidate(r["final_numbers"], "combined")
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+
+    # simulation: best_picks 상위 10개
+    best = db.get_best_picks(limit=10)
+    for b in best:
+        nums = json.loads(b["numbers"]) if isinstance(b["numbers"], str) else b["numbers"]
+        _add_candidate(nums, "simulation", b.get("score_total"))
+
+    # heatmap: 10세트
+    for _ in range(10):
+        try:
+            r = rec.recommend_with_heatmap(draws, past_recs)
+            _add_candidate(r["numbers"], "heatmap")
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+
+    # manual: 10세트
+    for _ in range(10):
+        try:
+            r = rec.recommend_numbers(draws)
+            _add_candidate(r["numbers"], "manual")
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+
+    candidates.sort(key=lambda c: -c["meta_score"])
+    top = candidates[:sets]
+
+    result_sets = []
+    for c in top:
+        sc = ana.score_combination(c["numbers"], cache)
+        contributions = {}
+        for strat in STRATEGIES:
+            contributions[strat] = round(weight_map.get(strat, 0) * sc["score_total"], 4)
+        contrib_total = sum(contributions.values()) or 1
+        contributions = {s: round(v / contrib_total, 3) for s, v in contributions.items()}
+
+        result_sets.append({
+            "numbers": c["numbers"],
+            "meta_score": c["meta_score"],
+            "source_strategy": c["strategy"],
+            "contribution": contributions,
+            "individual_scores": {k: round(v, 4) for k, v in sc.items()},
+        })
+
+    perfs = db.get_strategy_performance()
+    data_draws = len(set(p["draw_no"] for p in perfs))
+    status = "active" if data_draws >= MIN_DATA_DRAWS else "learning"
+
+    return {
+        "sets": result_sets,
+        "strategy_weights_used": weight_map,
+        "learning_status": {
+            "draws_learned": data_draws,
+            "status": status,
+            "message": "" if status == "active" else f"{MIN_DATA_DRAWS}회차 이상 데이터 필요 (현재 {data_draws}회차)",
+        },
+        "based_on_latest_draw": latest["drw_no"] if latest else None,
+    }