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web-page-backend/lotto/app/backtest.py
2026-05-31 16:49:49 +09:00

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"""로또 자가학습 백테스트 — 순수 연산 (FastAPI 의존성 0, Windows 이전 대비)."""
import random
from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
from .analyzer import build_analysis_cache, build_number_weights, score_combination
from .utils import weighted_sample_6
from .weight_evolver import count_match
def grade_tickets(tickets: List[List[int]], winning6: List[int], bonus: int) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""티켓 묶음을 당첨번호로 채점 → 매칭 히스토그램 + 보너스 + best_match.
2등 판정: 5일치 AND 보너스 번호를 티켓이 포함."""
win = set(winning6)
hist = {"m3": 0, "m4": 0, "m5": 0, "m6": 0, "bonus_hits": 0}
best = 0
for t in tickets:
c = len(set(t) & win)
if c > best:
best = c
if c == 6:
hist["m6"] += 1
elif c == 5:
hist["m5"] += 1
if bonus in t:
hist["bonus_hits"] += 1
elif c == 4:
hist["m4"] += 1
elif c == 3:
hist["m3"] += 1
return {**hist, "best_match": best}
def prize_counts(hist: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, int]:
"""매칭 히스토그램 → 등수 카운트.
1등=m6, 2등=bonus_hits, 3등=m5bonus_hits, 4등=m4, 5등=m3."""
return {
"1st": hist.get("m6", 0),
"2nd": hist.get("bonus_hits", 0),
"3rd": hist.get("m5", 0) - hist.get("bonus_hits", 0),
"4th": hist.get("m4", 0),
"5th": hist.get("m3", 0),
}
def generate_pool(cache, number_weights, n: int = 20000,
seed: Optional[int] = None) -> List[List[int]]:
"""가중 샘플링으로 distinct 후보 풀 생성."""
if seed is not None:
random.seed(seed)
seen, pool = set(), []
attempts, cap = 0, n * 4
while len(pool) < n and attempts < cap:
attempts += 1
nums = tuple(sorted(weighted_sample_6(number_weights)))
if nums in seen:
continue
seen.add(nums)
pool.append(list(nums))
return pool
def purchase_tickets(pool, cache, W: List[float], k: int) -> List[List[int]]:
"""풀을 score_combination(·, W)로 랭킹 → 상위 k장 distinct."""
ranked = sorted(pool, key=lambda t: -score_combination(t, cache, W)["score_total"])
return ranked[:k]
def random_null_tickets(k: int, seed: Optional[int] = None) -> List[List[int]]:
"""무작위 distinct 티켓 k장 (null-model 대조군)."""
if seed is not None:
random.seed(seed)
seen, out = set(), []
while len(out) < k:
nums = tuple(sorted(random.sample(range(1, 46), 6)))
if nums in seen:
continue
seen.add(nums)
out.append(list(nums))
return out
def coverage_tickets(k: int, seed: Optional[int] = None) -> List[List[int]]:
"""greedy 커버리지 — 아직 덜 쓰인 번호를 우선 배치해 번호를 넓게 분산.
(휠링/보장설계는 향후. 현재는 distinct + 번호 사용 균등화)"""
if seed is not None:
random.seed(seed)
usage = {n: 0 for n in range(1, 46)}
seen, out = set(), []
guard = 0
while len(out) < k and guard < k * 50:
guard += 1
ranked = sorted(range(1, 46), key=lambda n: (usage[n], random.random()))
nums = tuple(sorted(ranked[:6]))
if nums in seen:
# 동점 흔들기: 약간 더 깊은 풀에서 샘플
nums = tuple(sorted(random.sample(ranked[:12], 6)))
if nums in seen:
continue
seen.add(nums)
out.append(list(nums))
for n in nums:
usage[n] += 1
return out