docs(signal-v2): amend spread formula to absolute (q90-q10) for Chronos-bolt zero-shot reality

Phase 0 spec §6.1 originally specified relative spread (q90-q10)/median < 0.6.
Phase 3b smoke (005930: median=-0.59%, q90-q10=15.3%) revealed Chronos-bolt
zero-shot median frequently sits near zero, causing relative spread to explode
(15.3/0.0059 ≈ 25) and reject every signal. Absolute spread (0.153 < 0.6)
preserves the threshold semantic and keeps Phase 7 IC validation tractable.

Phase 4 spec §4.2 + Phase 0 §6.1 both amended with cross-reference.
chronos_predictor.py conf calculation unchanged — monotonic mapping there
is independent of hard-gate semantics.
This commit is contained in:
2026-05-17 13:10:50 +09:00
parent f4b78da176
commit 534ded59e8
2 changed files with 8 additions and 2 deletions

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@@ -194,7 +194,7 @@ agent-office 가 web-ai 의 Ollama (Qwen3 14B Q4) 에 보내는 prompt 의 응
### 6.1 매수 신호 (screener Top-20 종목 대상)
조건 (전부 충족):
1. Chronos-2 1-day quantile (median) 예측 > 0% 그리고 분포 폭 (90-10 분위수 / 50 분위수) < 0.6 (좁은 분포 = 높은 conf)
1. Chronos-2 1-day quantile (median) 예측 > 0% 그리고 분포 폭 `q90 - q10` < 0.6 (절대 spread, 60% return 변동 미만 = 모델 확신; **Phase 4 amend 2026-05-17**: 기존 relative formula `(q90-q10)/median` 는 Chronos-bolt 의 median≈0 출력에서 거의 모든 신호 거부 → absolute spread 채택. 자세한 사유는 `2026-05-17-signal-v2-phase4-signal-generator.md` §4.2 참조)
2. 분봉 모멘텀 = `strong_up`:
- 5분봉 5개 연속 양봉
- 거래량 > 평균 1.5배